Military Plans of Russia and the United States/NATO

Victor Hvozd
Doctor of Military Sciences

As shown by the first steps of the new US President J. Biden, the main direction of his policy is to strengthen American positions in the geopolitical triangle: the United States — China — Russia. At this, while China is mainly seen by the United States as the most powerful economic competitor, Russia remains its main military adversary. Given these circumstances, the Biden administration will focus on deterring China in the economic sphere and neutralizing Russia, which poses the greatest threat to the USA’s security. Achieving such goals will allow the United States to protect its economic interests, ensure its own security, and remove Russia from its geopolitical adversaries as the most dangerous rivalry.

As part of the practical implementation of these plans, the United States will use against Russia methods already proven to be effective during the Cold War. The main ones will be a “game” to reduce oil prices, restricting Moscow’s access to Western loans, investments and modern technology, support to Russia’s opponents, as well as involving it in various conflicts. Of course, all this will be accompanied by a further escalation of the confrontation between the United States and Russia in the military sphere. At this, both sides will continue steps to strengthen their troops on the main directions of the US-Russian confrontation, as well as increase the scale of demonstrations of force.

In recent years, the most significant of these actions have been the Strategic Command and Post Exercises of the Armed Forces of Russia, such as the “West” and the “Caucasus”, as well as the United States’/NATO’s “Defender-Europe” exercises held at the European theater of operations. At this, they are actually symmetrical in nature, although they are held in different regions.

In particular, last year the main events of the “Caucasus-2020” SCPE were conducted in the Black Sea region, and of Defender-Europe 20 exercise — in the Baltic region. This year, the main tasks of the “West-2021” SCPE will be conducted in the Baltic region, and the Defender-Europe 21 — in the Black Sea region and on the Balkan Peninsula.

At first glance, Russia and the United States allegedly avoid the possibility of direct confrontation between their armed forces, including within the framework of exercises. However, in fact, such exercises are a mutual test of the parties’ forces and a test of the determination of their positions. Moreover, the Russian and American exercises are, in fact, multidimensional in nature and are conducted on the entire “front line”: from the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans to the Baltic, Black, Caspian and Mediterranean Seas.

Evidence of this was the scenarios and the course of the exercises “Caucasus-2020” and Defender-Europe 20. Thus, the idea of “Caucasus-2020” SCPE provided for the rehearsal of offensive and defensive operations in the Black Sea region. Similar smaller-scale tasks were also conducted in the Baltic region. Troops from the Southern and partly Western Military Districts, as well as other troops and branches of the Russian Armed Forces, were involved in the SCPE. At this, the United States, NATO, and Ukraine were seen as Russia’s adversaries.

In turn, the main subject of the scenario of the exercise Defender-Europe 20 was repulsing Russia’s aggression against Poland and the Baltic states and North-Western Europe. At the same time, against a single operational background, a number of measures were taken to respond to Russia’s intensified military activity in the Black Sea region. First of all, the exercise had to prevent the expansion of scale of Russian aggression against Ukraine under the guise of the “Caucasus-2020” SCPE.

Besides, both Russia and the United States/NATO conducted a wide range of other interrelated exercises, including of their strategic nuclear forces with test launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles.

The military activities of Russia and the United States/NATO will be similar in the current year, except for the corresponding changes in the activities of the parties on the main strategic directions of the European theatre. Thus, the plans for the “West-2021” SCPE are openly declared by Russia as a demonstration of readiness to “defend Russian and Belarusian interests against the United States and NATO”. However, based on previous experience, the exercise will work out the scenario of Russian troops’ breakthrough to the Kaliningrad region of Russia via the so-called Suwalki Gap (starting from Grodno region of Belarus and running along the border between Poland and Lithuania), as well as the capture of the Baltic states and parts of Poland. The main participants in the exercise will be the 1^st Tank Army and the 20^th Combined Arms Army of the Western Military District of the RF Armed Forces. At the same time, in the Black Sea region, with the participation of the troops of the Southern Military District, they will rehearse the task of deterring the United States and NATO.

The plans for the US/NATO Defender-Europe 21 exercise are also quite transparent. According to official reports from NATO’s military command, the exercise’s scenario envisages countering Russia’s aggression in the Black Sea region, as well as responding to the crisis in the Balkans. The 173^rd Airborne Brigade (Vicenza, Italy), the 82^nd Airborne Division (Fort Bragg, USA) and the 53^rd Infantry Brigade of the National Guard (Florida, USA) will be the main participants in the exercise from the USA. Besides, units from NATO’s rapid deployment forces in South-Eastern Europe and Allied national armed forces in the region will be involved. A special feature of the exercise will be working out the task of air defense of Bulgaria and Romania, as well as live firing of surface-to-surface missiles from their territories.

At the same time, in the Baltic region will be worked out tasks of preventing Russia’s possible attack on the Baltic states and Poland under the guise of the “West-2021” SCPE. These tasks will involve NATO’s Multinational Corps Northeast and forward headquarters of the V Corps of the US Army in Poland. According to the operational plans, the 1^st Cavalry Division (Fort Hood, Texas, USA), the 12th Aviation Brigade (Bavaria, Germany) and the 41st Field Artillery Brigade (Germany) of the US Army will be transferred under its command.

In fact, all this will be the first real test for Moscow and Washington after J. Biden’s coming to power and his intentions to move to a tougher course towards Russia. At the same time, the complex of Russian and American military exercises will be another rehearsal of the armed conflict between Russia and the United States/NATO. According to Russian media, the situation around Crimea and the Donbas could be an excuse for such a war.

Taking this into consideration, a special role in the military plans of Russia and the United States/NATO will be played by Ukraine, which remains fundamentally important for the strategic interests of both parties. The reason for this is Ukraine’s influence on the balance of forces between them in Europe, which, first of all, concerns the south-eastern flank of the European theatre of operations.

This is exactly what the military exercises of Russia and the United States/NATO in the Black Sea region show, and which, in fact, have the character of a struggle for Ukraine. Moreover, while within the framework of such exercises Russia is working on the task of regaining its control over Ukraine, the United States/NATO is showing readiness to assist Ukraine in counteracting Russian aggression.

Given these circumstances, further aggravation of Russian-American relations as a result of Biden’s policy will also lead to an intensification of the confrontation between Russia and the United States/NATO over Ukraine in the military sphere. The result will be an increased threat of escalation of Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine. This will also mean additional opportunities for Ukraine to strengthen its defense capabilities by increasing military support from the United States and other NATO countries, first of all the United Kingdom (determined by the Alliance to be responsible for deterring Russia in the Black Sea region).

Thus, we should expect strengthening of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine. In particular, such actions will include reorganization of the motorized infantry brigades of the Western and Southern Military Districts, as well as the coastal troops of the Black Sea Fleet into a division-level units. In addition, implementation of plans to create new missile, artillery, reconnaissance and other formations and units of district, army and navy subordination will continue.

According to some reports, Russia also plans to deploy a new combined arms army on the Crimean Peninsula. Besides, a regiment of Tu-22M long-range strategic bombers (had been based on the Peninsula until early 1990s, when it was disbanded) may be restored as part of naval aviation of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Today, one of these regiments is subordinated to the Northern Fleet of Russia.

Special attention of the Russian military command will be paid to strengthening the capabilities of the Southern and Western Military Districts for the use of tactical nuclear weapons. As noted in my previous articles, in 2018–2019, the 291^st Artillery Brigade, armed with tactical nuclear munitions, was restored as part of the 58^th Combined Arms Army (HQ — Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia), namely — self-propelled 240-mm mortars “Tulip” and 203-mm self-propelled guns “Malka”. Similar formations can be restored in the 8^th (HQ — Novocherkassk, Rostov region) and 49^th (HQ — Stavropol) Combined Arms Armies of the Southern Military District.

The deploying of carriers of tactical nuclear weapons in Crimea is also not ruled out. Right now we can mention the “Kalibr” cruise missiles, which are in service with missile ships and submarines of the Black Sea Fleet. In addition, the carriers of tactical nuclear munitions (bombs) are front bombers Su-24M and Su-34 of the Black Sea Fleet and the 4^th Army of the Air Force and Air Defense of the Russian Aerospace Forces (the Army operatively subordinated to the Southern Military District).

Besides, a missile brigade with “Iskander-M” missile systems (can be armed with tactical nuclear warheads) and a heavy artillery unit with the above-mentioned artillery systems can be deployed in Crimea. In recent years, at least two storage facilities for tactical nuclear munitions have been restored in Crimea, including near Feodosia and Balaklava (near the city of Sevastopol, the location of the underground submarine base).

The United States and NATO are taking adequate measures in response. For example, they are considering creation of a new Rapid Deployable Corps in the Southeast Europe as part of NATO’s Joint Command Southeast in Izmir, Turkey. The Corps could include a multinational NATO division-level headquarters in Romania and another division-level headquarters to be deployed in Hungary.

In addition, the USA’s and NATO’s strategic and tactical nuclear weapons are being deployed in the Black Sea region. In particular, in 2016, the US/NATO Aegis land-based missile defense system, equipped with SM-3 anti-missiles, was deployed in Romania. When necessary, it can launch nuclear ballistic missiles.

Since 2014, the Black Sea has been under systematic patrols by US and NATO warships, including US cruisers and destroyers, equipped with the Aegis missile system. Such US Navy warships are capable of detecting launches and tracking the flights of enemy strategic and tactical missiles, destroying them, as well as retaliating with missile strikes, including with the use of tactical nuclear munitions.

In 2019–2020, for the first time in the Black Sea region, there began flights of strategic bombers of the US Air Force, working out the tasks of conditional strikes on military and other objects in the North Caucasus of Russia and in the annexed Crimea. At this, the fact of using Ukrainian airspace by US strategic aviation became the most significant.

The deployment of American missile systems near Crimea is similarly illustrative.  In particular, in November 2020, two HIMARS systems from the 41^st Field Artillery Brigade of the US Army stationed in Germany were deployed to Romania. Each of those systems can launch six rockets or one tactical ballistic missile ATACMS with a range of up to 300 km. The missile can be armed with tactical nuclear warhead. The US Air Force Lockheed MC-130 military transport aircraft was used to transport the HIMARS systems, which showed their high mobility. The systems were deployed at one of the Romanian test grounds, carried out missile launches and returned to Germany on the same day.

And in early 2021, the United States deployed in Romania MQ-9 Reaper drones. Following this, it was decided to deploy in Romania an American Naval Strike Missiles (NSM) with a range of up to 400 km. Due to this, the United States and NATO may block the Russian Black Sea Fleet at its base in the occupied Sevastopol. All these tasks will be tested in the summer of this year during NATO’s exercise Defender-Europe 21.

Completely new perspectives are also opening up for Ukraine. Thus, according to the Ambassador of Ukraine to the United States V. Yelchenko, in 2021 the US military aid package to Ukraine may be increased to 700 million US dollars. At this, according to Ukrainian experts, apart from patrol boats, anti-tank missiles and other similar equipment, Ukraine may get much more powerful weapons.

But the real strategic achievements for Ukraine may be its acquisition of the status of a major non-NATO ally of the USA, as well as its being included in NATO’s operational plans. And in the future — opening of real prospects for Ukraine’s membership in the Alliance, even while maintaining the problems of Crimea and the Donbas. Today, this issue is already being considered by NATO leaders, taking into account the experience of Germany, which lost its eastern territories, but was still accepted into the Alliance.

All this will bring Ukraine to a qualitatively new level, as a country that will receive real military assistance from the United States and NATO.